情报科学 ›› 2022, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (3): 126-135.

• 业务研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于logistic的网络舆情共生效应与仿真研究

  

  • 出版日期:2022-03-01 发布日期:2022-03-08

  • Online:2022-03-01 Published:2022-03-08

摘要: 【目的/意义】探索网络舆情之间的共生关系和共生机理、分析共生效应重要环节,有助于增强政府应对和
引导网络舆情的能力。【方法/过程】在生态学共生理论的基础上,通过共生舆情的质参量兼容性、发展水平和发展
潜能分析共生效应作用机理,提出基于logistic的共生模型,结合生命周期理论进行仿真实验,阐释了共生效应对共
生舆情的影响效果及其影响路径,并通过实证验证共生模型。【结果/结论】基于对共生模型的仿真实验及分析,按
要素提出消除网络谣言负面影响和提升正面舆情积极影响的思路和策略。共生模型与实际数据的拟合程度较好
也证明了共生模型的可靠性和有效性。【创新/局限】在深入研究舆情共生机理的基础上提出了基于 logistic的共生
模型并进行了仿真分析和实证检验,但模型的适用范围仅局限于共生舆情。

Abstract: 【Purpose/significance】Exploring the symbiotic relationship and mechanism between network public opinions and analyzing
the important links in the symbiotic effect are helpful to enhance the government's ability to respond to and guide network public opin‐ions【. Method/process】Based on the symbiosis theory in nature,the mechanism of symbiosis effect was analyzed from the three impor‐tant factors of symbiosis public opinion:qualitative parameter compatibility,development level and development potential.A symbiosis model based on Logistic was put forward.Combined with the life cycle theory,the simulation experiment was conducted to explain the influence of symbiotic effect on symbiosis public opinion and its influence path. The symbiotic model is validated in the empirical analysis【. Result/conclusion】Based on the simulation experiment and analysis results of the symbiosis model,the ideas and strategies of eliminating the negative influence of network rumors and enhancing the positive influence of positive public opinions were proposed by elements and stages.The good fit between the model and the actual data also indicates the reliability and effectiveness of the model.【Innovation/limitation】On the basis of in-depth research on the symbiosis mechanism of public opinion,a logistic symbiosis model is proposed and simulation analysis and empirical test are carried out.However,the applicable scope of the model is limited to the symbio‐sis of public opinion.