情报科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (11): 45-50.

• 理论研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

突发疫情环境下网络舆情传播趋势预测及社会保障应急机制研究

  

  • 出版日期:2021-11-01 发布日期:2021-11-15

  • Online:2021-11-01 Published:2021-11-15

摘要: 【目的/意义】突发疫情环境下将形成大量网络舆情,准确把握网络舆情传播趋势可为突发疫情环境下的社
会保障应急机制提供参考依据。【方法/过程】本文从网络舆情信息交互影响要素、网络舆情信息交互机理两方面分
析突发疫情环境下网络舆情信息交互机理;并从网络舆情传播趋势特点考虑,以新冠病毒肺炎李文亮事件为例,采
用Elman 神经网络模型,选取网络信息数量以及情绪总量和主导情绪作为网络舆情传播趋势预测主要变量和辅助
变量,对突发疫情环境下的网络舆情传播趋势进行预测分析,针对预测结果制定相关社会保障应急机制。【结果/结
论】研究提出可通过完善网络舆情相关法律机制、社会参与机制、信息披露机制、社会监督机制、责任追究机制五项
社会保障应急机制,以期为突发疫情环境下维持社会稳定性提供依据。【局限/创新】未来研究中可结合更多相关实
例进行分析,从而使研究结论进一步得到丰富与深化。

Abstract: 【Purpose/significance】A large number of online public opinions will be formed in the sudden epidemic environment,and ac?
curately grasping the spreading trend of online public opinion can provide a reference for the social security emergency mechanism in
the sudden epidemic environment.【Method/process】This article analyzes the mechanism of online public opinion information interac? tion in an outbreak environment from two aspects:the factors affecting the interaction of online public opinion information and the mechanism of online public opinion information interaction; and considering the characteristics of the spread of online public opinion, the new crown virus pneumonia Li Wenliang incident is taken as an example For example,the Elman neural network model is used to select the amount of network information,the total amount of sentiment,and the dominant sentiment as the main and auxiliary variables for predicting the trend of network public opinion transmission,to predict and analyze the trend of network public opinion transmission in an emergency situation,and formulate the prediction results Relevant social security emergency mechanism.【Result/conclusion】 The study proposes that five social security emergency mechanisms can be improved through the improvement of legal mechanisms re? lated to online public opinion,social participation mechanisms,information disclosure mechanisms,social supervision mechanisms,and accountability mechanisms,in order to provide the basis for maintaining social stability in a sudden epidemic environment.【Innovation/limitation】Future research can be combined with more relevant examples for analysis,so that the research conclusions can be further enriched and deepened.