摘要：

Abstract:

【Purpose/significance】 The report of the Twentieth National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed to "im⁃

prove the capability of disaster prevention, reduction and relief and the ability to deal with emergencies". Government microblog has

become an important platform for government departments to release information on natural disaster relief events.

【Method/process】

The establishment of an effective public opinion early warning mechanism is helpful to grasp the trend of public opinion in time and

provide a reference basis for adjusting emergency relief decisions. The metabolic grey Markov dynamic prediction model is estab⁃

lished. On this basis, the discrimination rules of public opinion alarm level are established based on grey correlation analysis.【Result/

conclusion】 Through the case test of "Henan encountered heavy rain", it shows that the model significantly improves the prediction ac⁃

curacy, and the alarm level identification method is reliable. It will help to improve the emergency management system of government

departments for public opinion risk of sudden natural disasters, establish a linkage mechanism between early warning and response,

and improve emergency management capabilities.【Innovation/limitation】 The research introduced the metabolic model with the con⁃

cept of dynamic prediction, and established the linkage mechanism of public opinion warning and emergency response.