黑河中游土地利用与景观格局的水文效应分析

doi:10.16843/j.sswc.2019.01.009

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摘要区域土地利用与景观格局对水文效应具有重要影响。作者以地处西北内陆干旱区的黑河中游为研究区，基于土地利用数据（2000、2010和2014年）、气候数据（1999-2015年）及基础地理信息数据，采用InVEST模型、最小二乘回归、空间回归及地理加权回归等方法，揭示土地利用与景观格局对产水的影响。结果表明：1）黑河中游产水量东南多、西北少，且有逐年减少趋势，这与当地土地利用与景观格局的变化有直接关系。2）在土地利用尺度上，林地、水体、耕地等用地类型有助于促进产水，建设用地和未利用地则抑制产水；在景观尺度上，景观类型越丰富、斑块分布越均匀，越有利于产水，反之则抑制产水。3）空间回归模型消除回归残差的空间负相关性，地理加权回归提升了模型性能。该研究结果可为区域生态系统管理提供参考。

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	江颂
	蒙吉军
	陈奕云

关键词 ：土地利用, 景观格局, 水文效应, InVEST模型, 回归分析, 黑河中游

Abstract：[Background] Regional land use and the pattern of landscape have an important influence on hydrological effects. Previous studies on the influence mechanism of water yield focused on the land use area, but take little consideration about landscape pattern.[Methods] This study was conducted in the middle reaches of Heihe River, which locates in the arid area of Northwest China. Based on the land use data (2000, 2010, and 2014), climate data (1999-2015) and basic geographic information data, this study established InVEST model to simulate the water yield. On the scale of land use, considering the spatial factors, this study analyzed the effects of land use types on water yield by means of ordinary least squares regression model, spatial regression model and geographically weighted regression model. On the scale of landscape, combining principal component analysis to screen landscape index, this study further analyzed the effects of landscape pattern on water yield.[Results] 1) The middle reaches of Heihe River had more water yield in the southeast, less in the northwest, and the water yield in 2000, 2010, and 2014 was 1.73×10⁸ m³、1.63×10⁸ m³、1.38×10⁸ m³ respectively. 2) On the scale of land use, the regression coefficients of wood land, water and farmland were all greater than 0, and the coefficients of construction land and bare land were all less than 0. On the scale of landscape, the regression coefficient of the first principal component which was mainly explained by landscape richness and evenness was greater than 0, and the coefficient of the second principal component explained by area standard deviation was less than 0. Water yield is promoted in wood land, water and farmland, but reduced in construction land and bare land. 3) The Moran's I of residual of ordinary least squares regression model and spatial error model was -0.43 (P=0.03), 0.12 (P=0.11) respectively. The R² of ordinary least squares regression model, spatial regression model and geographically weighted regression model was 0.59, 0.71, 0.90 respectively. On landscape scale, the more abundant the landscape types, the more evenly the patches distribute, the more conducive to water yield, while conversely, water yield is suppressed. The spatial regression model eliminates the negative spatial correlation of regression residuals. Geographically weighted regression improves the model performance.[Conclusions] The middle reaches of Heihe River have a decreasing trend with the increase of the year, which is directly related to the change of local land use and landscape pattern. These results may provide reference for regional ecosystem management.

Key words： land use landscape pattern hydrological effect InVEST model regression analysis the middle reaches of the Heihe River

收稿日期: 2017-10-18

PACS:

P942

基金资助:国家自然科学基金"基于格网的黑河中游多功能性及时空格局权衡"（41871074）

通讯作者: 蒙吉军(1971-),男,博士,副教授。主要研究方向:资源环境管理。E-mail:jijunm@pku.edu.cn E-mail: jijunm@pku.edu.cn

作者简介: 江颂(1995-),女,硕士研究生。主要研究方向:土地生态。E-mail:JiangSong@pku.edu.cn

引用本文:

江颂¹, 蒙吉军¹, 陈奕云². 黑河中游土地利用与景观格局的水文效应分析[J]. 中国水土保持科学, 2019, 17(1): 64-73.
JIANG Song, MENG Jijun, CHEN Yiyun. Analysis of hydrological effects of land use and landscape pattern in the middle reaches of Heihe River. SSWC, 2019, 17(1): 64-73.

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http://journal12.magtechjournal.com/Jweb_stbc/CN/10.16843/j.sswc.2019.01.009 或 http://journal12.magtechjournal.com/Jweb_stbc/CN/Y2019/V17/I1/64

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