榆林市沙漠化演变及其驱动力分析

doi:10.16843/j.sswc.2022045

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摘要识别土地沙漠化的影响因素,对制定沙漠化防治对策、促进人与自然和谐发展具有重要意义。基于2000-2014年榆林市沙漠化监测数据和气象数据,采用灰色关联度分析、偏相关分析、主成分分析等方法,研究6种气候因素和8种人为因素对不同沙漠化等级土地面积变化的影响,识别主要驱动因子,并构建沙漠化面积预测模型。结果表明:1)除潜在沙漠化土地面积有所增加外,其余各类型沙漠化土地面积均显著减少;2)前5主成分中,人为因素的累积贡献率为52.98 %,气候因素累积贡献率为38.17 %,表明沙漠化主要受人类活动影响;3)构建的三次回归模型可较好模拟不同类型沙漠化面积变化,模型解释量达40 %~66 %。本成果可为评估未来气候变化对沙漠化的影响和制定沙漠化防治对策提供参考。

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	刘亚辰
	王苗
	陶泽兴
	呼雪梅

关键词 ：沙漠化, 气候变化, 人类活动, 灰色关联度, 主成分分析, 榆林市

Abstract：[Background] It is of great significance to identify the influencing factors of land desertification for formulating desertification disaster prevention and promoting the harmonious development of human and nature.[Methods] Based on the desertification and meteorological data of Yulin city from 2000-2014, this paper used gray relational analysis, partial correlation analysis and principal component analysis to study the effects of 6 climatic factors and 8 human factors on the land area changes in areas with different desertification levels. By identifying the main driving factors, a prediction model of desertification area was constructed.[Results] 1) Except for the increase in the area of potential desertification land, the areas of other types of desertification land in Yulin city decreased significantly. 2) The results of driving force analysis showed that the cumulative contribution rate of human factors and climate factors was 52.98 % and 38.17 % respectively. It indicated that desertification in study area was still mainly affected by human activities. 3) The cubic regression model better simulated the area changes of different types of desertification, and the model interpretation (R²) reached 40 %-66 %.[Conclusions] The results of this paper may provide reference for assessing the impact of future climate change on desertification and formulating desertification disaster prevention and control countermeasures.

Key words： desertification climate change human activities gray relational analysis principal component analysis Yulin city

收稿日期: 2022-03-15

PACS:

K903

基金资助:国家自然科学基金“基于唐宋诗歌的物候记录提取及温度重建”(41807438);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“数字时代的中国西部环境变化中人的作用研究”(22JJD770020)

通讯作者: 陶泽兴(1989-),男,博士,副研究员。主要研究方向:全球变化。E-mail:taozx.12s@igsnrr.ac.cn E-mail: taozx.12s@igsnrr.ac.cn

作者简介: 刘亚辰(1988-),男,博士,副教授。主要研究方向:全球变化。E-mail:liuyc@xawl.edu.cn

引用本文:

刘亚辰, 王苗, 陶泽兴, 呼雪梅. 榆林市沙漠化演变及其驱动力分析[J]. 中国水土保持科学, 2024, 22(2): 9-16.
LIU Yachen, WANG Miao, TAO Zexing, HU Xuemei. Temporal variations of desertification and its driving forces in Yulin city. SSWC, 2024, 22(2): 9-16.

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http://journal12.magtechjournal.com/Jweb_stbc/CN/10.16843/j.sswc.2022045 或 http://journal12.magtechjournal.com/Jweb_stbc/CN/Y2024/V22/I2/9

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