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| Response of runoff and sediment discharge to global climate change in Jinghe River Basin |
| Cao Ying1,Zhang Guanghui1,2,Luo Rongting1 |
| 1.School of Geograph,Beijing Normal University;2.State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Ecology,Beijing Normal University: 100875,Beijing,China |
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Abstract Global climate change had a tremendous impact on the water cycle.Changes in precipitation features varied from region to region,and they also impact on river runoff,sediment discharge and regional soil loss significantly.Based on the data of precipitation,runoff and sediment discharge from 1961 to 2006 in Jinghe River Basin,this study analyzed the statistical relation between precipitation and runoff,and between runoff and sediment discharge.According to the results of precipitation of three periods(2010—2039,2040—2069 and 2070—2099) which simulated by five GCMs(HadCM3、CGCM2、CSIRO-Mk2、ECHAM4 and GFDL),the statistical relations to calculate runoff and sediment discharge in the future was brought.The results showed the ability of simulated data varied by different GCMs.It led to the difference of estimated runoff depth and sediment discharge.Compared of A2 and B2 scenarios published by IPCC,it indicated that the response of runoff and sediment discharge under A2 scenario was more strongly.And contrasted to the measured period(1961—2006),the variable ranges of precipitation,runoff depth and sediment discharge from 2010 to 2099 were-5.53%-31.65%,-9.26%-53.44%,-11.13%-64.59% respectively,and the average increases were 11.69%,19.78% and 23.94%.The finding of this study played guiding significance to the planning of soil and water conservation and strategy establishment in the future of the Loess Plateau.
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Received: 08 July 2009
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