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| Landscape pattern change and prediction on county scale of west Songnen grasslands: A case study of Dumeng County |
| Li Yunping<sup>1</sup>,Liu Yongbing<sup>2</sup>,Wang Jiping<sup>3</sup>,Li Hailong<sup>4</sup>,Zhang Guoming<sup>5</sup> |
1.College of Shanxi Forestry Technology,030009,Taiyuan;2.Environmental Protection Research Institute of Light Industry,100089,Beijing;3.Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100085,Beijing;4.The Graduate School of Landscape Architecture,Peking
University,100871,Beijing;5.Institute of Loess Plateau,Shanxi University,030006,Taiyuan: China |
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Abstract Landscape pattern change and prediction is very important for ecological land-use and plan.Based on 1979,1990 and 2004 TM datum,the landscape pattern of Tempo-spatial conversion,driving element analysis and its impact in the eco-environment in Dumeng County were studied in macro-scale by ERDAS 9.1,ArcGIS 9.2 and landscape ecology methods.The results showed that significant changes have taken place in the past 25 years.Grassland decreased rapidly from 1979 to 1990 and a increasing trend appeared from 1990 to 2004;field land increased rapidly and the rate of increasing fell in 1990 to 2004;water area changed periodically;bulrush land all along decreased,however salina land increased.Landscape fragmentation degree and fractal dimension increased,which implied the enhancement of landscape heterogeneity,the whole landscape take on instability trend.Landscape pattern predicted results by Markov model showed that the field land,grassland,water area,bulrush land will keep decreasing,while forest land,salina land and construction land would increase year after year.It was indicated that the eco-environment in the study area was very vulnerable and sensitive to the landscape pattern change.
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Received: 20 June 2008
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