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| Spatiotemporal coupling analysis of precipitation field based on REOF and ESMD: A case study on winter precipitation in Shandong province |
| HU Gang1,2,3, SHI Xingjun4, SONG Hui1,2 |
1. School of Tourism and Geography Sciences, Qingdao University, 266071, Qingdao, Shandong, China;
2. Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water and Soil Conservation and Environmental Protection, 276000, Linyi, Shandong, China;
3. The Society of Soil and Water Conservation of Shandong, 250013, Jinan, China;
4. College of Physics, Qingdao University, 266071, Qingdao, Shandong, China |
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Abstract [Background] The precipitation in winter has an important influence on soil moisture, winter crops,spring plowing and sowing. Shandong is a major agricultural province in China. However the characteristics of spatio-temporal distribution of winter precipitation in Shandong province is still unclear. The purpose of this study is to reveal the spatio-temporal distribution of winter precipitation and its relationship in Shandong province. [Methods] The data required for the paper comes from China National Meteorological Information Center, and the minimum time scale for data monitoring is 12 h. Based on the methods of both Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF), Extreme-Point Symmetric Mode Decomposition (ESMD) and precipitation data from China National Meteorological Information Center, the spatial mode and cycle characteristics of winter precipitation field in Shandong province in recent 68 years were analyzed. [Results] 1) According to analysis of EOF reflecting the spatial variability of the whole region, the winter precipitation in Shandong province presents three main distribution modes: overall consistent, northwest-southeast antiphase and northeast-southwest antiphase. And variance contributions of three modes from EOF were 68.7%, 10.39% and 6.38% respectively. Obviously the first mode, overall consistent one of winter precipitation, was the most important distribution pattern. 2) Based on regional characteristics from REOF analyses, winter precipitation in Shandong province has formed a spatial distribution structure with the high-load areas of southeastern Shandong, northern Shandong and western Shandong respectively. The variances of the three modes were 34.17%, 30.20% and 21.10% respectively, indicating that the winter precipitation anomalies in these three regions had relatively obvious regional characteristics. The results of the period analysis based on FFT (fast Fourier transform) indicated that time coefficients (TCs) of southeast mode had the significant periodic characteristics with quasi-2.9-year and quasi-11.6-year, TCs of the north mode with quasi-2.52-year and quasi-8.29-year, TCs of the west mode with quasi-3.63-year, quasi-6.44-year and quasi-14.50-year. Meanwhile, the trend components of each mode decomposed by ESMD showed that the inter-decadal fluctuation was dominant, and there was no obvious trend of linear change, which indicated that the winter precipitation of the three modes in Shandong didn’t show a single trend characteristic during the monitoring period. Further analysis shows that the southeastern type shows a weak fluctuation and non-significant increase trend, while the northern type showed a weak fluctuation and insignificant decrease trend, while the western type shows little overall change. [Conclusions] REOF and ESMD are effective methods to analyze the spatiotemporal coupling relationship of large scale regional meteorological data. Taking winter precipitation of Shandong province as an example with the above two methods, the research results may provide reference for scientific practice for the rational planning and guidance of agricultural production in Shandong province.
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Received: 28 October 2019
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