黄土丘陵沟壑区西川河流域近50a径流变化趋势与归因识别

doi:10.16843/j.sswc.2023145

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摘要气候变化和人类活动影响下流域水文过程及归因分析,对于理解水文演变规律,制订流域管理对策具有重要意义。以陕北黄土丘陵沟壑区的西川河流域为例,采用M-K检验、累积距平法等方法,分析近50 a来降雨、输沙、径流变化趋势与演变特征,基于Budyko假设识别驱动流域径流变化的主导因素,并进行定量归因研究。结果表明:流域降雨量的变化速率为-0.085 4 mm/a,Z值为-0.026,总体变化不明显。输沙量和径流量的Z值分别为-3.35和-2.38,径流量、输沙量年际变化呈显著下降;春汛发生在3月,汛期集中在7—9月,占年径流量的50%以上。输沙量的年代际波动幅度最大,径流量次之,降雨量波动幅度最小;1996年为径流突变年份,流域年径流量变化对降雨最敏感,而人类活动是其减少的主要原因。从贡献来看,下垫面条件变化为69.15%,降雨量为21.99%,潜在蒸散发为8.86%;在人类活动影响下,西川河流域径流变化呈明显的不均匀性和趋势性。未来应结合生态恢复过程,加强土地利用变化与流域水沙过程关系研究。

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	史砚文
	王计平
	程复
	王一川
	罗志东
	郭汉清

关键词 ：径流, 气候变化, 人类活动, 归因分析, Budyko假设

Abstract：[Background] Soil and water loss is serious in the sediment source area of the upper reaches of the Yanhe River. Climate change and human activities are important driving forces affecting the temporal and spatial changes of hydrological processes in the basin. The study of hydrological process and attribution analysis under the influence of climate change and human activities is of great significance for understanding the law of hydrological evolution and formulating soil erosion control plan. It is particularly important for the high-quality development of the basin, the planning and management of soil and water conservation, and the protection of the Yellow River. [Methods] Taking Xichuan River Basin in the loess hilly and gully region of northern Shaanxi province as an example, data from hydrological stations and meteorological data shared by websites were collected. M-K test, cumulative anomaly method, coefficient of variation and runoff extreme value ratio were used to analyze the variation trend and evolution characteristics of rainfall, sediment transport and runoff in recent 50 years. The dominant factors driving runoff change in the basin were identified based on Budyko hypothesis, and quantitative attribution research. [Results] According to the M-K trend test, the change rate of precipitation in the basin is -0.085 4 mm/a, the test statistic(Z) value is -0.026, and the overall change is not obvious. The Z values of sediment transport and runoff were -3.35 and -2.38, respectively, and the inter-annual variation showed a significant downward trend. The spring flood occurs in March, and the flood season is concentrated in July-September, accounting for more than 50% of the annual runoff. Sediment discharge of decadal swings (the largest coefficient of variation (C_v) value of 0.40-1.18), runoff times (C_v value of 0.21-0.43), the rainfall fluctuation minimum (C_v value of 0.18-0.23). The mutation year was determined according to M-K mutation test and cumulative anomaly curve, and the study period was divided into two periods, 1971-1996 as the base period and 1997-2019 as the change period. Runoff changes are most sensitive to rainfall factors, and human activities are the main reason for the decrease of runoff. Underlying surface change contributed the most, accounting for 69.15%, rainfall contributed 21.99%, and potential evapotranspiration contributed 8.86%. [Conclusions] Due to the influence of human activities, the variation of runoff in the Xichuan River Basin in a long time scale shows obvious non-uniformity and trend. In order to minimize soil erosion and reduce the amount of silt entering the Yellow River, relevant organizations have carried out a lot of soil and water conservation work in the region. By emphasizing the process of ecological reclamation and land use structure transformation, we make the assessment of land use/cover change and its hydrological response as the key points of soil and water loss management, and we will strive for comprehensive response part in the future.

Key words： runoff climate variability human activity attribution analysis Budyko hypothesis

收稿日期: 2023-10-16

PACS:

P333

基金资助:国家自然科学基金"基于源汇景观格局流域水土流失评价与优化调控"(41871195), "基于源汇景观理论的植被恢复空间配置合理性评价与应用拓展" (STSTC2023008)

通讯作者: 郭汉清(1972—),男,博士,副教授。主要研究方向:土壤侵蚀与流域综合治理。E-mail:ghqbxm@126.com E-mail: ghqbxm@126.com

作者简介: 史砚文(1998—),女,硕士研究生。主要研究方向:水土保持评价与流域管理。E-mail:sywksh@163.com

引用本文:

史砚文, 王计平, 程复, 王一川, 罗志东, 郭汉清. 黄土丘陵沟壑区西川河流域近50a径流变化趋势与归因识别[J]. 中国水土保持科学, 2024, 22(4): 51-58.
SHI Yanwen, WANG Jiping, CHENG Fu, WANG Yichuan, LUO Zhidong, GUO Hanqing. Variation trend and attribution identification of runoff in Xichuan River Basin in loess hilly and gully region in recent 50 years. SSWC, 2024, 22(4): 51-58.

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http://journal12.magtechjournal.com/Jweb_stbc/CN/10.16843/j.sswc.2023145 或 http://journal12.magtechjournal.com/Jweb_stbc/CN/Y2024/V22/I4/51

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