黄河流域头道拐—龙门区间极端降水时空分布特征及其对径流的影响

doi:10.16843/j.sswc.2022225

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摘要全球气候变化背景下极端降水事件频发,研究理解极端降水时空变化特征,明确径流过程的变化规律及影响机制对半干旱-半湿润区水土保持决策具有重要意义。基于头道拐—龙门区间1960—2021年37个气象站点资料以及头道拐、龙门水文站资料,分析区间极端降水时空分布特征以及径流动态变化特征,并使用PLSR模型分析极端降水事件同径流之间的关系。结果表明:1)近60多年来,除持续干旱时间、持续降水时间、最大1日降水量、最大5日降水量之外其余各极端降水指数均呈上升趋势,区间极端降水强度指数上升趋势总体高于极端降水频率指数;2)头道拐—龙门区间多年平均径流量为39.8亿m³,自20世纪60年代以来平均变化趋势为0.947亿m³/a。随时间的推移径流量呈显著减少态势,以1979年为界,区间年径流量从61.9亿m³下降到29.3亿m³;3)基于突变前各极端降水指数同区间年径流深所构建的PLSR模型累计解释了年径流总方差的88.4%,年降水总量、强降水总量、极端强降水总量是影响头道拐—龙门区间径流变化的最重要变量,同时进一步定量化分离极端降水和人类活动对区间径流的影响,其中极端降水对于径流变化的贡献率为10.6%。

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关键词 ：极端降水指数, 时空分布, 径流变化, PLSR模型, 头道拐—龙门区间

Abstract：[Background] Extreme precipitation events occur frequently under the background of global warming, and it is of great significance to understand the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of extreme precipitation between Toudaoguai and Longmen of Yellow River Basin, and to clarify the variation law and influence mechanism of runoff process for soil and water conservation decision-making in semi-arid and sub-humid regions. [Methods] Based on the data of 37 meteorological stations in the Toudaoguai-Longmen section from 1960 to 2021, as well as the data of Toudaoguai and Longmen hydrological stations, this study analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of extreme precipitation and the dynamic characteristics of runoff in the section, and used PLSR model to explore the relationship between extreme precipitation events and runoff. [Results] 1) In the past 60 years, all the extreme precipitation indices except the consecutive dry days, the consecutive wet days, the max 1-day precipitation and the max 5-day precipitation showed an upward trend, and the upward trend of the interval extreme precipitation intensity index was generally higher than that of the extreme precipitation frequency index. 2) The average annual runoff in the Toudaoguai-Longmen section was 3.98×10⁹ m³, with an average change trend of 94.7×10⁶ m³ / a since the 1960s, and the runoff showed a significant decreasing trend with the passage of time. Taking 1979 as the boundary, the annual runoff in the section decreased from 6.19×10⁹ to 2.93×10⁹ m³. 3) The PLSR model based on the annual runoff depth of the same section of each extreme precipitation index before the mutation explained 88.4% of the total variance of annual runoff, and the annual total precipitation, the total heavy precipitation and the total extreme heavy precipitation were the most important variables affecting the runoff change between Toudaoguai and Longmen. At the same time, the impacts of extreme precipitation and human activities on the section runoff were further quantified, and the contribution rate of extreme precipitation to the runoff change was 10.6% after the abrupt change. [Conclusions] Relatively less precipitation and highly concentrated extreme precipitation events are the main precipitation factors causing soil erosion in the Toudaoguai-Longmen section. In addition to the impact of human activities, extreme precipitation events will still be an important cause of regional runoff changes after entering the period of soil and water conservation projects and returning farmland to forests.

Key words： extreme precipitation index temporal and spatial distribution runoff change PLSR model Toudaoguai-Longmen section

收稿日期: 2022-11-04

PACS:

P333

基金资助:国家自然科学基金“黄土高原坡面土壤侵蚀特征地带性变化及驱动机制”(42077071);国家重点研发计划专项“流域植被-梯田-淤地坝级联的侵蚀能量组控与水沙调控技术”(2022YFF1300803)

通讯作者: 任宗萍(1982—),女,博士,副教授。主要研究方向:生态水文过程与土壤侵蚀。E-mail:renzp@xaut.edu.cn E-mail: renzp@xaut.edu.cn

作者简介: 马晓妮(1998—),女,博士研究生。主要研究方向:生态水文过程。E-mail:maxiaoni1998@163.com

引用本文:

马晓妮, 任宗萍, 李占斌, 李斌斌, 谢梦瑶. 黄河流域头道拐—龙门区间极端降水时空分布特征及其对径流的影响[J]. 中国水土保持科学, 2024, 22(3): 72-81.
MA Xiaoni, REN Zongping, LI Zhanbin, LI Binbin, XIE Mengyao. Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of extreme precipitation and its impact on runoff in Toudaoguai-Longmen section of the Yellow River Basin. SSWC, 2024, 22(3): 72-81.

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http://journal12.magtechjournal.com/Jweb_stbc/CN/10.16843/j.sswc.2022225 或 http://journal12.magtechjournal.com/Jweb_stbc/CN/Y2024/V22/I3/72

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