气候变化与人类活动对海河山区流域径流的影响

doi:10.16843/j.sswc.2019.01.014

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摘要海河流域是我国缺水最为严重和突出的地区，研究气候变化与人类活动对海河流域山区径流的影响对流域水资源管理具有重要意义。以海河流域山区为研究区域，应用基于Budyko假设的概念模型和双累积曲线法分析气候变化和人类活动对研究区径流变化的影响。结果表明：1）研究区降水、径流及潜在蒸散发均存在明显的下降趋势，气温存在明显的上升趋势，区域水文过程及气候变化明显；流域径流突变分析结果表明，其在1980年发生突变。2）研究区变化期（1980-2000）流域径流相比基准期（1957-1979）减少45.18 mm，其中气候变化的影响量为10.89 mm，其贡献率为24.11%。3）人类活动对研究区径流变化的影响量为33.87 mm，其贡献率为74.97%。认为研究区海河流域山区部分径流在1957-2000年间的变化过程中，人类活动是主要的影响因素。

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关键词 ：气候变化, 人类活动, 径流, 海河流域山区

Abstract：[Background] Climate change and human activity are the major influence factors on streamflow. The effects of climate change and catchment changes on the long-term water balance are of considerable interest at a range of spatial scales. Haihe basin is the most serious and prominent area in China, studying the effects of climate and human activity on streamflow is of great significance for water resources management.[Methods] The Budyko framework has been widely used to attribute changes in streamflow to the effects of climate and human activity. And the method of double mass curve (DMC) is often used in the analysis of the consistency of hydro-meteorological factors and their inter-annual variations because a plot of the two cumulative quantities during the same period exhibits a straight line. In this study, we chose the mountainous area of Haihe basin as our study area, and used Budyko hypothesis and double mass curve to analyze the effects of climate and human activity on streamflow.[Results] The results show that:1) the precipitation, streamflow and potential evapotranspiration in Haihe basin are all obvious decreased trends, while the temperature is an obvious increased trend; the mann-kendall analysis results show that the streamflow has an abrupt change in 1980; 2) the study period (1957-2000) can be divided into a reference period (1957-1979) and a change period (1980-2000) based on the change point of 1980, the mean streamflow in the reference period and the change period are 115.12 mm and 69.94 mm, respectively, and experiences a large reduction of 45.18 mm; 3)in this change, the effect of climate change were 10.89 mm and accounted for 24.11%, and among them, the effect of precipitation change was decreasing 13.94 mm (accounted for 82.05%) and the effect of potential evapotranspiration was increasing 3.05 mm (accounted for 17.95%); 4) After 1979, human activities began to have a significant effect on watershed streamflow; among the change of streamflow in Haihe basin, the effect of human activities were 33.87 mm and accounted for 74.97%.[Conclutions] There are many factors affecting the runoff of the river basin, such as land use change, water conservancy project, water resources development and so on; human activities affect the process of regional water circulation by changing the type of underlying surface, and Haihe Basin is one of the most serious areas affected by human activities. Most studies showed that the effect of human activities on streamflow is far greater than the effect of climate change, and in this study, the results also show that for the changes of streamflow in Haihe mountainous area in 1957-2000, the major factor is human activity and its contribution rate is large as 74.97%, while the contribution rate of climate change is only 24.11%.

Key words： climate change human activities streamflow Haihe mountainous area

收稿日期: 2017-04-05

PACS:

P343

基金资助:中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金"白洋淀流域湿地水文演变及驱动机制"（CAFYBB2016SY032）

通讯作者: 张曼胤(1971-),副研究员,硕士生导师。主要研究方向:湿地生态学。E-mail:cneco@126.com E-mail: cneco@126.com

作者简介: 王贺年(1989-),男,助理研究员。主要研究方向:流域水文。E-mail:wanghenian2006@126.com

引用本文:

王贺年^1,2, 张曼胤^1,2, 崔丽娟^1,2, 余新晓³. 气候变化与人类活动对海河山区流域径流的影响[J]. 中国水土保持科学, 2019, 17(1): 102-108.
WANG Henian, ZHANG Manyin, CUI Lijuan, YU Xinxiao. Effects of climate change and human activities on streamflow in Haihe mountainous area. SSWC, 2019, 17(1): 102-108.

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http://journal12.magtechjournal.com/Jweb_stbc/CN/10.16843/j.sswc.2019.01.014 或 http://journal12.magtechjournal.com/Jweb_stbc/CN/Y2019/V17/I1/102

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