气候变化和人类活动对基流的影响——以密云水库上游潮河流域为例

doi:10.16843/j.sswc.2018.06.003

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摘要由气候变化和人类活动加剧引起的流域水资源短缺和不确定性的增加成为当今世界亟待解决的问题之一。基流作为河川径流的重要组成部分，具有十分重要的利用价值，是水量平衡分析、水资源优化配置和水资源管理的重要内容，也是维护河流生态健康的重要基础。以潮河流域密云水库上游为研究对象，采用Chapman-Maxwell滤波法从1963—2015年潮河流域实测日径流系列中对基流进行分割；采用Mann-Kendall检验和双累计曲线法，对气候变化与人类活动对朝河流域密云水库上游基流变化进行归因分析。结果表明：1）潮河流域1963—2015年基流量呈现极显著下降趋势（P<0.001），其突变点为1999年；2）基流与降水呈极显著正相关（R²=0.64，P<0.01），与潜在蒸散发（PET）呈显极著负相关（R²=0.27，P<0.01），降水对基流量的影响比PET对基流量的影响更大；3）人类活动是导致该流域基流发生突变的主要原因，其贡献率达81.10%。人类活动包括流域土地利用变化、大规模生态恢复、水利工程措施建设以及流域取用水等多个方面。

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	王曼玉
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	张志强

关键词 ：基流, 降水, PET, 人类活动

Abstract：[Background] It is one of the challenging issues in water resources management as influence of climate changes and human activities have intensified on the hydrological cycling of watershed. As a component of streamflow, baseflow plays a significant role in water balance analysis, optimal allocation and management of water resources, as well as the maintenance of healthy river ecosystems. However, it has rarely been explored on the impacts of climate change and human activities on the baseflow up to date.[Methods] We, therefore, used well established baseflow separation method, Chapman-Maxwell filtering, to separate the baseflow from in situ measured daily streamflow data for Chaohe watershed located in the upstream of the Miyun Reservoir from 1963 to 2015 in northern China. Mann-Kendall test and double mass curve approaches were then applied to track the change trend and change points of annual baseflow and to quantify the contributing percentage from climate change and human activities for the studied period.[Results] 1) From 1963 to 2015, the baseflow in the Chaohe watershed significantly declined with the change point occurred in 1999, baseflow decreased by average annual of 0.1 mm. Before and after the change point, the annual average precipitation decreased by 16.4% (84.4 mm), the annual average PET increased by 7.3% (84.4 mm), and the annual average base flow decreased by 66.8% (9.2 mm). 2) Climatically, the baseflow was significantly correlated with precipitation in a positive way (R²=0.64, P<0.01) while negatively correlated with Penman-Monteith equation derived potential evapotranspiration (PET) significantly (R²=0.27, P<0.01), precipitation played a more important role than PET in baseflow variation. 3) Decreasing baseflow was mainly caused by human activities with maximum contribution rate of 81.10%.[Conclusions] The human activities were the main reason for the decreased baseflow from 1999-2015 in Chaohe watershed. Such activities include land use/land cover changes, massive ecological restoration, water conservancy project construction, and water withdrawal and water uses in the watershed. More specifically, the implantation of soil and water conservation measures and land conversion programs(Grain for Green) in the Chaohe watershed made significant increase in forestland and decrease in grassland and cropland, which favored more evapotranspiration and leading to the reduction of baseflow.

Key words： baseflow precipitation PET human activities

收稿日期: 2017-07-20

PACS:

S715.1

基金资助:北京市科技计划项目"2017年度创新基地培育与发展专项-京津冀水土保持生态环境大数据信息平台构架体系研究"（Z171100002217030）；北京市科学研究与研究生培养共建项目"森林植被恢复对密云水库上游流域水文的影响"

通讯作者: 张志强(1967-),男,教授,博士生导师。主要研究方向:森林水文、侵蚀控制与流域管理。E-mail:zhqzhang@bjfu.edu.cn E-mail: zhqzhang@bjfu.edu.cn

作者简介: 王曼玉(1992-),女,硕士研究生。主要研究方向:森林水文与流域管理。E-mail:617354440@qq.com

引用本文:

王曼玉¹, 蔡永茂², 李春征³, 张志强¹. 气候变化和人类活动对基流的影响——以密云水库上游潮河流域为例[J]. 中国水土保持科学, 2018, 16(6): 15-23.
WANG Manyu, CAI Yongmao, LI Chunzheng, ZHANG Zhiqiang. Impact of climate change and human activities on watershed baseflow: A case study of the upstream of Miyun Reservoir in Chaohe watershed. SSWC, 2018, 16(6): 15-23.

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http://journal12.magtechjournal.com/Jweb_stbc/CN/10.16843/j.sswc.2018.06.003 或 http://journal12.magtechjournal.com/Jweb_stbc/CN/Y2018/V16/I6/15

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