基于CA-Markov模型的巴东县土壤侵蚀预测及空间驱动力分析

doi:10.16843/j.sswc.2024065

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摘要巴东县作为三峡库区的重要组成部分，水土流失严重。基于RUSLE模型探索2000、2010和2020年3期巴东县土壤侵蚀时空动态变化，采用CA-Markov模型预测2030年土壤侵蚀情况，利用地理探测器量化月均降雨量、高程、坡度、植被覆盖度、土地利用类型和土壤类型6个驱动因子对土壤侵蚀空间分布的解释力。结果表明：1）研究区以低强度侵蚀为主，3期微度侵蚀分别占据研究区面积的76.93%、83.89%和95.46%；2000—2020年土壤侵蚀强度由高强度侵蚀向微度侵蚀转化，微度侵蚀面积增加605.57 km²，轻度以上侵蚀面积减少604.74 km²；2）预测的2030年土壤侵蚀强度持续减少，与2020年相比微度侵蚀面积增加62.78 km²，其余侵蚀等级面积均减少；3）植被覆盖度、月均降雨量和高程是影响巴东土壤侵蚀的主要因子，其交互作用主要表现为非线性增强。巴东县土壤侵蚀程度整体呈下降趋势，这与土地利用方式的变化和水土保持措施的实施密切相关。今后在水土流失治理工作中，需进一步重视长江、清江和神农溪等水域周边地区。

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	陈仕军
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	戚海梅
	张洪珊
	苏中原
	王云琦

关键词 ：土壤侵蚀, RUSLE模型, CA-Markov模型, 地理探测器, 巴东县

Abstract：Background The soil erosion in Badong county is serious, which seriously threatens the water quality safety of the Three Gorges Reservoir area. The analysis of the spatial and temporal variations as well as the factors driving soil erosion in Badong county is helpful for the government to formulate corresponding policies. Methods The spatial and temporal dynamic changes of soil erosion in Badong county in 2000, 2010, and 2020 were investigated using the RUSLE model, and the soil erosion in 2030 was predicted using the CA-Markov model. The explanatory power of six driving factors: monthly average rainfall, elevation, slope, vegetation covering, land use type, and soil type，on the spatial distribution of soil erosion was quantitatively measured using the geographical detector.Results 1) The study area was dominated by low-intensity erosion, and the three stages of sightly erosion accounted for 76.93%, 83.89% and 95.46% of the study area, respectively. From 2000 to 2020, the soil erosion intensity changed from high to sight. The area of sight erosion increased by 605.57 km², and the other erosion areas decreased by 604.74 km². 2) The intensity of soil erosion was predicted to keep declining through 2030. The area of sight erosion will increase by 62.78 km² in comparison to 2020, whereas the areas of other erosion grades are going to decline. 3) Vegetation coverage, monthly average rainfall and elevation were the primary factors affecting soil erosion in Badong, and their interaction was mainly nonlinear enhancement. Conclusions Overall, there is a decreasing trend in the degree of soil erosion in Badong county, which is strongly correlated with changes to land use patterns and the implementation of water and soil conservation measures. Future efforts to minimize soil erosion and water loss should be given to the regions around the Yangtze, Qingjiang, and Shennong rivers.

Key words： soil erosion RUSLE model CA-Markov model geographical detector Badong county

收稿日期: 2024-05-13

PACS:

P684

基金资助:巴东县水土保持局“巴东县水土流失调查及治理对策研究”（2023HXFWSBXY022）

通讯作者: 王云琦（1979—），女，博士，教授。主要研究方向：边坡失稳机理与农业面源污染。E-mail：wangyunqi@bjfu.edu.cn E-mail: wangyunqi@bjfu.edu.cn

作者简介: 陈仕军（1971—），男，本科，工程师。主要研究方向：水利水电及水土保持。E-mail：563035990@qq.com

引用本文:

陈仕军, 黄元章, 谭定光, 王佳妮, 戚海梅, 张洪珊, 苏中原, 王云琦. 基于CA-Markov模型的巴东县土壤侵蚀预测及空间驱动力分析[J]. 中国水土保持科学, 2025, 23(1): 222-232.
CHEN Shijun, HUANG Yuanzhang, TAN Dingguang, WANG Jiani, QI Haimei, ZHANG Hongshan, SU Zhongyuan, WANG Yunqi. Prediction and spatial driving force analysis of soil erosion in Badong county based on CA-Markov model. SSWC, 2025, 23(1): 222-232.

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