基于Mann-Kendall检验和信息熵的成都市1980-2016年降水时空变化

doi:10.16843/j.sswc.2019.04.004

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Abstract [Background] According to studies from the International Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global climate has undergone profound changes during the past ten decades, so has the process mechanism and spatio-temporal distribution pattern of precipitation in recent years. Precipitation plays a crucial role in the water cycle, and energy flow among the atmosphere, vegetation, soil, and other systems, resulting in remarkable environmental disturbances. Chengdu city is located in Sichuan Basin of southwestern China, characterized by the subtropical humid monsoon. Studying the characteristics of precipitation in Chengdu city may provide a significant scientific basis and theoretical support for management of water resources and warning of meteorological disaster here.[Methods] Based on the daily precipitation data of 14 meteorological stations in Chengdu city from 1980 to 2016, the one-dimensional trend of precipitation in this area was studied using simple regression analysis. The abrupt variability of precipitation in time series was detected by the Mann-Kendall method, and the uncertainty and stability of the precipitation were detected by information entropy. On this basis, the visual expression of information entropy distribution regarding regional precipitation was analyzed through the technology of GIS (geographic information system).[Results] 1) The chronological changes of precipitation from 1980 to 2016 present variability, with the highest value of precipitation in 2013 at 1 274.77 mm and the lowest in 1997 at 768.6 mm. The average annual precipitation over the Chengdu city is 950.10 mm, showing a trend of gradual decrease with a tendency of -2.049 mm/a. The changing tendency of seasonal precipitation is less obvious. No significant decrease of precipitation (P>0.05) is found in spring, summer, autumn and winter, and neither significant increase in autumn. 2) Chengdu city has much uneven rainfall distribution. The average precipitation decreases from the east to the west, with the center located in hilly regions of the eastern hilly region and the lowest in the northern side of the western foothills region. The uncertainty of precipitation varies with time units. 3) The information entropy reaches the highest for annual precipitation, followed by summer precipitation, spring and autumn precipitation, and monthly precipitation in order. It indicates that the summer rainfall tends to be as rich and steady as ever, and the precipitation in autumn and spring will become increasingly changeable and difficult to be forecasted accurately and timely.[Conclusions] In recent decades, the precipitation in Chengdu city has exhibited certain temporal and spatial variation. The changing tendency and uncertainty of precipitation in Chengdu city has a close correlation with regional and global climate change. Nevertheless, the specific and detailed process mechanism remains unclear. It is found in this study that the more the precipitation is, the smaller the information entropy and the more uncertainty the precipitation is.

Key words： information entropy Mann-Kendall spatio-temporal distribution precipitation Chengdu city

Received: 23 October 2018

PACS:

P426.6

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	WANG Xiaoxuan
	ZUO Xiaoqing
	YANG Zenan
	ZHANG Yanmei
	XIE Wenbin

Cite this article:

WANG Xiaoxuan,ZUO Xiaoqing,YANG Zenan, et al. Spatio-temporal changes of precipitation in Chengdu from 1980 to 2016 based on Mann-Kendall test and information entropy[J]. SSWC, 2019, 17(4): 26-33.

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http://journal12.magtechjournal.com/Jweb_stbc/EN/10.16843/j.sswc.2019.04.004 OR http://journal12.magtechjournal.com/Jweb_stbc/EN/Y2019/V17/I4/26

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