福建省前后汛期极端降水危险性的空间差异

doi:10.16843/j.sswc.2022157

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摘要受台风与季风降水的不同影响,我国东南沿海地区前后汛期极端降水差异显著。为揭示该区域前后汛期极端降水危险性的差异,以福建省为典型区,应用熵权-CRITIC组合权重模型赋权的TOPSIS方法,选取最大1d降水量、最大连续5d降水量、降水强度、暴雨时间和强降水量等5项代表性指标,分别对25个气象站点1960-2020年的前后汛期极端降水危险性进行评价。结果表明:1)福建省前汛期极端降水危险性指数总体较高,呈现自东部沿海向西北山区递增的趋势;后汛期极端降水危险性总体较低,呈现自东部沿海向西北山区递减的趋势;2)福建省前后汛期极端降水危险性指数差异大,可分为前汛期显著型站点14个、前后汛期相当型站点6个和后汛期显著型站点5个。因此,区分前后汛期并分别进行极端降水危险性评价,能够更合理地揭示区域极端降水危险性及其空间变化的规律,为区域防汛抗涝、水土保持等工作提供科技支撑。

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关键词 ：极端降水, 危险性, 前后汛期, 空间变化, TOPSIS, 福建省

Abstract：[Background] There are mainly two kinds of weather systems affecting precipitation in southeast coastal areas of China. Frontal precipitation is dominant in the first flood season (before June 30), while the precipitation is mainly caused by tropical weather systems such as typhoons in the second flood season (after June 30). The extreme precipitation feature is significantly different between the first and the second flood seasons, which may lead to different possibility of flood and soil erosion in different flood seasons. Therefore, it is of great significance to understand the hazard of extreme precipitation in different flood seasons.[Methods] In order to reveal the difference in the hazardof extreme precipitation between the first and the second flood seasons, Fujian province was taken as an example. Fujian province located in the southeast coastal areas of China, backed by The Eurasian continent and facing the Pacific Ocean in the east, special geographical environment resulted in a sensitive region of frequent precipitation. The extreme precipitation indices covering RX1day, RX5day, SDII, R50 and R95p were selected and calculated for the first and second flood seasons respectively, based on the data of 25 meteorological stations from 1960-2020. A TOPSIS method combined with CRITIC-entropy weight composition model was applied to evaluate the hazard in the first and the second flood seasons.[Results] 1) The overall hazard extreme precipitation in the first flood season was higher than that of in the second flood season. The hazard in the first rainy season increased spatially from the eastern coast to the northwestern mountains and it decreased from the southeast coast to the northwestern mountains in the second flood season. 2) There was a large difference in the hazard of extreme precipitation between the first and the second flood seasons. It was divided into 3 types according to the difference in the hazard and resulted in 14 sites as the type of the significant hazard in the first flood season, 6 sites as the type of the equivalent hazard in both seasons and 5 sites as the type of the significant hazard in the second flood season. The hazard of extreme precipitation in the first and the second flood seasons was evaluated respectively, which provided more reasonably spatial-temporal variation in Fujian province.[Conclusions] Because of the difference in weather systems affecting precipitation in southeast coastal areas of China, the hazard of extreme precipitation in the first and the second flood seasons was spatial-temporally different. Evaluating the hazard of extreme precipitation separately can reasonably reveal the danger of extreme precipitation and its spatial variation, and may provide scientific and technological support for regional flood control, water and soil conservation, etc.

Key words： extreme precipitation hazard the first and the second flood seasons spatial variation TOPSIS Fujian province

收稿日期: 2022-07-28

PACS:

P426.616

基金资助:国家自然科学基金“台风和非台风暴雨混合影响下的流域洪水特征及其频率分析方法研究”(41877167)

通讯作者: 陈兴伟(1963-),男,博士,教授。主要研究方向:流域水沙污染物过程与防灾减灾。E-mail:cxwchen215@fjnu.edu.cn E-mail: cxwchen215@fjnu.edu.cn

作者简介: 卢嘉怡(2001-),女,本科生。主要研究方向:区域极端降水危险性。E-mail:824171710@qq.com

引用本文:

卢嘉怡, 陈艺倩, 陈兴伟, 邓海军. 福建省前后汛期极端降水危险性的空间差异[J]. 中国水土保持科学, 2024, 22(2): 34-43.
LU Jiayi, CHEN Yiqian, CHEN Xingwei, DENG Haijun. Spatial difference in the hazard of extreme precipitation during the first and the second flood seasons in Fujian province. SSWC, 2024, 22(2): 34-43.

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