1971—2018年西藏羌塘国家级自然保护区地表湿润指数的变化趋势

doi:10.16843/j.sswc.2021.04.002

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摘要研究地表湿润指数H_i的时空变化特征，是认识区域水文过程及其对气候变化响应的重要途径，可为生态环境变化监测提供依据。根据1971-2018年西藏羌塘国家级自然保护区5个气象站逐日地面观测资料，应用Penman-Monteith模型计算潜在蒸散量和湿润指数，采用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall方法分析H_i的年际与年代际变化、突变特征，基于数据处理系统，利用主成分回归方法讨论影响H_i的主导因子。结果表明：1）1971-2018年自然保护区年平均气温以0.046 ℃/a的速度显著升高，年降水量每年增加1.18 mm，暖湿化气候特征明显，但年H_i却没有表现出明显的增大趋势，仅为0.001/a，不过夏季H_i增幅明显；20世纪70-90年代保护区表现出以低湿为主的年际变化特征，进入21世纪代后气温持续升高，H_i明显增加，表现出暖湿型的气候特征。2）年H_i在1996年出现由偏干转偏湿的突变，1996-2018年H_i比1971-1995年增加了19.1%。3）主成分回归分析显示，降水量是影响年H_i变化的主导因子（正贡献），日照时间也起着次要作用（负贡献）；在季节上影响H_i变化的主导因子都是降水量（正贡献），次要因子有所不同：春、秋2季是日照时间（负贡献）、夏季是气温日较差（负贡献）、冬季是平均气温（负贡献）。1996年转折前后影响年H_i的主导因子都是降水量，不过次要因子存在差异，突变前后分别是气温日较差（负贡献）和日照时间（负贡献）。

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关键词 ：变化趋势, 湿润指数, 影响因素, 主成分回归, 羌塘国家级自然保护区

Abstract：[Background] There is a unique alpine desert ecology in the Chang Tang Nature Reserve of Tibet (CTNRT), it is an important and indispensable pathway to explore the temporal and spatial variation of humidity index H_i in CTNRT and its driving factors under the background of global warming, in order to provide sharp insight into the regional hydrological process and its response to climate change, also it can provide a scientific basis for monitoring the ecological environment.[Methods] Based on daily meteorological data over 5 weather stations in CTNRT from 1971 to 2018, we computed the potential evapotranspiration and H_i using the FAO Penman-Monteith formula. The long-term trend and inter-annual variability of H_i in CTNRT were analyzed using linear tendency estimation and Mann-Kendall test. Moreover, the dominant influential factors explaining the changes of H_i were identified based on Data Processing System and principal component analysis.[Results] 1) In the past 48 years (1971-2018), the annual mean temperature in CTNRT presented a significant increasing trend with a rate of 0.046 ℃/a, the annual precipitation increased remarkably at the rate of 1.18 mm/a, and the annual mean H_i changed over time with a rate of 0.001/a, suggesting weak increasing trend, despite significant increasing trend observed in summer. From the 1970s to the 1990s, the H_i was featured with lower humidity characteristics in CTNRT. After the 2000s, the air temperature rose steadily, and H_i increased obviously, indicative of a warmer and wetter climate in CTNRT. 2) It was found that the annual mean H_i experienced an abrupt change from relatively dry to wet phase in 1996. On average, the H_i was found to increase by 19.1% during 1996-2018 compared with the period 1971-1995. 3) The principal component regression analysis showed that the precipitation (positive contribution) dominated the change of annual H_i, followed by the sunshine duration (negative contribution). The precipitation was the dominant factor for affecting the changes in seasonal mean H_i, but secondary factor differed greatly by season:the sunshine duration in spring and autumn, the daily temperature range (negative contribution) in summer, and the mean temperature (negative contribution) in winter.[Conclusions] From 1971 to 2018, this study area is featured by warm and humid climate, slight increasing H_i, better vegetation growth, and the improved regional ecological environment in CTNRT, providing scientific and technological support for the monitoring of ecological environment change.

Key words： climate change humidity index influencing factors principal component regression Chang Tang Nature Reserve of Tibet

收稿日期: 2019-11-18

PACS:

S161

基金资助:国家自然科学基金"羌塘国家级自然保护区气候变化及其对生态环境的影响"(41765011);2019年西藏自治区科技重点研发计划"西藏主要地表特征科学考察及研究";中国气象局软科学项目"青藏高原气候与生态环境变化应对策略研究"(2019ZDIANXM10)

作者简介: 杜军(1969-),男,学士,高级工程师。主要研究方向:青藏高原气候变化,生态与农牧业气象。E-mail:dujun0891@163.com

引用本文:

杜军, 周刊社, 袁雷. 1971—2018年西藏羌塘国家级自然保护区地表湿润指数的变化趋势[J]. 中国水土保持科学, 2021, 19(4): 13-23.
DU Jun, ZHOU Kanshe, YUAN Lei. Climate change tendency of surface humidity index in Chang Tang Nature Reserve of Tibet from 1971 to 2018. SSWC, 2021, 19(4): 13-23.

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http://journal12.magtechjournal.com/Jweb_stbc/CN/10.16843/j.sswc.2021.04.002 或 http://journal12.magtechjournal.com/Jweb_stbc/CN/Y2021/V19/I4/13

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