Abstract：[Background] Collapse gully erosion is a special type of soil erosion in southern China, but risk assessment research on collapse gully erosion is few. Risk assessment provides new ideas and methods for the study of collapse gully erosion and soil erosion.[Methods] This article selected Jiangxi Province as the study area. The index of the risk assessment was selected by the correlation factor analysis, and the Logistic model was used to calculate the occurrence risk of collapse gully erosion. On this basis, the hazardous risk of collapsing was estimated by the expert scoring method. In the end, the risk of collapse gully erosion can be obtained by superposing the occurrence risk and hazardous risk, so as to discuss the feasibility of risk assessment of collapse gully erosion at the regional scale.[Results] Collapse gully erosion in Jiangxi Province are mainly distributed in such as precipitation from 1 500 mm to 1 700 mm, granite red soil land, sloping from 10 degrees to 30 degrees, below 300 m altitude, vegetation coverage less than 0.2 or from 0.6 to 0.8, in forest or grassland area. By using the function of geographic analysis in ARCGIS, after overlay factors and the distribution of collapse gully erosion, 4 000 grid cells are sampled randomly and respectively in study area with collapse gully erosion or not, and logistic regression model is constructed with date of collapse gully erosion distribution and 6 screened factors such as hypsography, relief, vegetation cover, soil type, land use, and rock type. For accuracy tests amount to 70.9%, then the occurrence risk of collapse gully erosion in Jiangxi Province can be calculated by this logistic regression model. The occurrence risk of collapse gully erosion in the south and the west of Jiangxi Province is relatively higher, and those in the eastern, northern and central are relatively lower. The hazardous risk of collapse gully erosion is generally minor in the whole province, and the hazardous areas with relatively high risk showing a sporadic distribution trend. After comprehensive analysis of the occurrence risk and the hazardous risk, the collapse gully erosion presents medium and low risk in Jiangxi Province, which possesses more than 95 percent of the province's total area. Among them, the light risks accounts for 68% of the total area of the province and is mainly distributed in the surrounding areas of Poyang Lake. The measures of risk prevention and control should be mainly focused on prevention and protection in these areas. The medium-and upper-class risks is mainly distributed in the southern and western parts of Jiangxi Province, and in these parts, risk prevention and control measures should be taken equal attention to prevention, protection and comprehensive management.[Conclusions] Finally, the study proves that Logistic model is feasible for estimating the risk of collapse gully erosion.
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2017, Vol. 15 
