情报科学 ›› 2024, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (12): 60-69.

• 理论研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

社会突发事件网络舆情热度影响因素的组态研究 ——基于模糊集定性比较分析(fsQCA)

  

  • 出版日期:2024-12-05 发布日期:2025-06-27

  • Online:2024-12-05 Published:2025-06-27

摘要: 【目的/意义】当前新形势下,我国国家安全遭受着国内国外双向舆论压力,正确的舆论导向是维护国家安 全与社会稳定的重中之重。社会突发事件网络舆情生成及传播面临着诸多因素的加权,故厘清社会突发事件网络 舆情的扩散机理,对于正确引导网络舆情,维护主流意识形态安全具有重要意义。【方法/过程】本文结合行动者网 络理论与网络舆情五力模型,以2021-2022年56个国内社会突发事件为案例,运用模糊集定性比较分析(fsQCA)方 法,探讨社会突发事件网络舆情传播影响因素的组态效应。【结果/结论】研究发现单一变量无法解释社会突发事件 高热度网络舆论现象的形成;在组态研究中共得到产生高热度网络舆情的6个条件组态归纳为5种组合类型,分别 是国家认同型、舆论炒作型、高温冲击型、积累蓄力型、焦点转移型;观察到载体展现力在高热度网络舆情中的强作 用体现和主体驱动力特点性体现;其他不同条件组合也能够影响网络舆论热度。【创新/局限】将行动者网络理论与 网络舆情“五力”模型相结合构建研究框架,并且首次引入了“境外反宣”条件变量。不足之处在于样本库案例的选 取不够丰富,未来可跨年度选取典型案例进行分析。

Abstract: 【Purpose/significance】Under the current new situation, China's national security is under the pressure of two-way public opinion at home and abroad. The correct guidance of public opinion is the top priority to maintain national security and social stability. The generation and dissemination of network public opinion of social emergencies face the weighting of many factors, so it is of great significance to clarify the diffusion mechanism of network public opinion of social emergencies for correctly guiding network public opinion and maintaining the security of mainstream ideology.【Method/process】Based on the actor network theory and the five forces model of network public opinion, this paper takes 56 domestic social emergencies from 2021 - 2022 as cases, and uses the method of fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) to explore the configuration effect of the influencing factors of network public opin⁃ ion transmission of social emergencies.【Result/conclusion】The study found that a single variable could not explain the formation of high-intensity network public opinion phenomenon of social emergencies; In the configuration study, six conditions for generating high-profile network public opinion were obtained, which were summarized into five combination types, namely, national identity type, public opinion hype type, high temperature impact type, accumulation and accumulation type, and focus transfer type; it is observed that the carrier display power plays a strong role in the high popularity of network public opinion and the characteristics of the main driving force; other combinations of different conditions can also affect the popularity of online public opinion【. Innovation/limitation】 The actor network theory is combined with the "five forces" model of online public opinion to build a research framework, and the con⁃ ditional variable of "overseas anti propaganda" is introduced for the first time. The disadvantage is that the selection of cases in the sample library is not rich enough, and typical cases can be selected for analysis in the future.