情报科学 ›› 2025, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (7): 202-212.

• 博士论坛 • 上一篇    

数据驱动的地缘安全风险感知与演化模型构建

  

  • 出版日期:2025-07-05 发布日期:2025-10-16

  • Online:2025-07-05 Published:2025-10-16

摘要:

【目的/意义】地缘安全特征及演变规律是认知地缘政治态势和实施国际战略的重要依据。当前地缘安全
风险错综复杂,维护和增进地缘安全是推进中国式现代化、实现和平发展的重要保障,感知地缘安全风险对中国维
护地缘安全、促进可持续安全具有战略意义。【方法/过程】采用文献与量化方法界定地缘安全风险概念及影响因
素,构建地缘安全风险评价指标体系,进而从数据驱动的视角切入地缘安全风险感知本身,引入三元世界理论提出
地缘安全风险感知模型,构建数据驱动的地缘安全风险演化模型。【结果/结论】新的动荡变革期应对地缘安全风险
的策略,一是数智赋能地缘安全风险感知与治理;二是构建完善的地缘安全风险识别、评估与监管机制;三是提升
科技自主创新能力,发挥企业创新主体作用。【创新/局限】数据驱动方法以量化与可视化的解析捕捉动态频发的地
缘安全风险,推动地缘安全风险感知与推演从传统的主观经验判断向客观实证转变。

Abstract:

【Purpose/significance】The characteristics and evolution of geo-security are an important basis for recognizing geopolitical
dynamics and implementing international strategies. At present, geo-security risks are complicated. Maintaining and enhancing geo
security is an important guarantee for promoting Chinese modernization and realizing peaceful development, and perceiving geo
security risks is of strategic significance for China to maintain geo-security and promote sustainable security.【Method/process】The lit⁃
erature and quantitative methods are used to define the concept and influencing factors of geo-security risk, construct a geo-security
risk evaluation index system, and then cut into the geo-security risk perception itself from a data-driven perspective, introduce the
three-way world theory to propose a geo-security risk perception model, and construct a data-driven geo-security risk evolution
model【. Result/conclusion】The strategies for dealing with geo-security risks in the new turbulent and changing period are: first, digital
intelligence empowers geo-security risk perception and governance; second, build a perfect geo-security risk identification, assess⁃
ment and supervision mechanism; third, enhance the ability of independent innovation in science and technology and give full play to
the role of enterprise innovation subjects【. Innovation/limitation】Data-driven methods capture dynamically frequent geo-security risks
through quantitative and visual analysis, promoting the transformation of geo-security risk perception and deduction from traditional
subjective experience judgment to objective empirical evidence.