情报科学 ›› 2025, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (6): 42-48.

• 理论研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

一种基于元胞自动机的微信涉警网络舆情传播模型

  

  • 出版日期:2025-06-05 发布日期:2025-10-16

  • Online:2025-06-05 Published:2025-10-16

摘要: 【目的/意义】根据涉警网络舆情传播特点及微信平台信息交流模式,建立了一套包含易感者、潜伏者、传播 者、免疫者的舆情传播模型。【方法/过程】通过将微信社交网络中的个体视为智能体,根据元胞自动机原理构建涉 警网络舆情传播机制,并依据涉警舆情信息的多样化传播特点和智能体的个体差异,构建模型对舆情演化进行了 仿真,并讨论了关键因素对舆情扩散的影响。【结果/结论】研究结果表明:传播者的传播力、公安机关的公信力、传 播者的退出机制等因素在舆情传播中起重要作用。其中,易感人群中对公安机关的信任比率达到30%即可较为有 效控制舆情传播。【创新/局限】通过构建基于元胞自动机的微信涉警舆情传播模型,引入“忠实粉丝”等机制揭示了 影响舆情传播的关键因素。文中对舆情网络个体差异研究不足,今后将深入研究个体差异,实现人群精准行为模 式再现,为相关部门提供决策支持。

Abstract: 【Purpose/significance】To establish a public opinion transmission model comprising susceptible, latent, spreading, and im⁃ mune individuals, based on the characteristics of police-related online public opinion transmission and WeChat's communication mode.【Method/process】Individuals in WeChat's social network are treated as agents. Using cellular automaton principles, a policerelated online public opinion transmission mechanism is built. The model simulates public opinion evolution considering the diverse transmission features of police-related public opinion and individual agent differences, and analyzes key factors affecting public opin⁃ ion diffusion.【Result/conclusion】The spreader's influence, the credibility of public security organs, and the spreader's exit mecha⁃ nism play key roles in public opinion transmission. Notably, if 30% of the susceptible population trusts public security organs, public opinion spread can be effectively curbed.【Innovation/limitation】The study innovates by developing a cellular automaton-based model of police-related public opinion transmission on WeChat and introducing mechanisms like "loyal followers" to reveal key factors in public opinion transmission. However, it falls short in exploring individual differences in public opinion networks. Future research will delve into individual differences to achieve precise modeling of crowd behavior, offering decision support for relevant departments.