情报科学 ›› 2024, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (6): 74-82.

• 理论研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

共生理论视域下突发事件网络舆情反转形成路径研究 ——基于fsQCA定性比较分析

  

  • 出版日期:2023-06-01 发布日期:2024-07-31

  • Online:2023-06-01 Published:2024-07-31

摘要: 【 目的/意义】突发事件网络舆情反转现象的频繁发生,为相关舆情管理部门进行舆情治理带来了严峻挑 战,掌握网络舆情反转的形成路径可有效提高对舆情反转的可预见性,帮助其及时实施网络舆情的监管与引导。 【方法/过程】本文基于共生理论视角,构建突发事件网络舆情反转形成路径分析框架,以30个热点突发事件舆情案 例为研究样本,运用模糊集定性比较分析法(fsQCA),提取媒体报道、网民表现、群体压力、政府介入、内容敏感度、 信息传播形式、认知偏差7个条件变量,探究网络舆情反转的组合逻辑和形成路径。【结果/结论】 结果表明,网络舆 情反转的形成更倾向于多元组态影响,依据共生单元,将网络舆情反转路径归纳为网民表现矛盾型、媒体报道偏差 型和共同作用型三种组合路径,多因素间彼此作用,共同促成网络舆情反转现象。【创新/局限】揭示网络舆情反转 形成路径中各条件变量之间复杂的因果作用关系,有效拓宽了共生理论的研究维度,后续可增加案例选取容量验 证研究结果的普适性。

Abstract: 【Purpose/significance】The frequent occurrence of online public opinion reversal in emergencies has brought severe chal⁃ lenges for relevant public opinion management departments to conduct public opinion governance. Mastering the formation path of on⁃ line public opinion reversal can effectively improve the predictability of the reversal of public opinion and help them timely implement the supervision and guidance of online public opinion.【 Method/process】Based on the perspective of symbiosis theory, this paper con⁃ structs a path analysis framework for the formation of online public opinion reversal in emergencies. 30 public opinion cases of hot emergencies are taken as research samples, and fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) is used to extract seven conditional variables, including media coverage, Internet user performance, content sensitivity, information transmission characteristics, cognitive bias, group pressure and government intervention. Explore the combination logic and formation path of network public opinion reversal. 【Result/conclusion】The results show that the formation of network public opinion inversion tends to be influenced by multivariate con⁃ figuration. According to the symbiotic unit, the reverse path of network public opinion is summarized into three combinatorial paths: the contradiction type, the deviation type of media report and the co-action type, and the multiple factors interact with each other. Jointly pro⁃ mote the phenomenon of the reversal of public opinion on the Internet【. Innovation/limitation】Revealing the complex causal relationships between various conditional variables in the formation path of online public opinion reversal effectively expands the research dimension of symbiosis theory. In the future, the capacity for case selection can be increased to verify the universality of research results.