嘉陵江流域输沙量变异点分析

doi:10.16843/j.sswc.2023097

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摘要嘉陵江是长江上游水系中流域面积最大的支流，其水沙变化对长江干流的水沙条件有重要影响。考虑参数检验和非参数检验变异诊断方法原理的差异性，在2类诊断方法中各选取2种，即参数检验选取有序聚类法和滑动t检验法，非参数检验选取滑动游程法和Pettitt法，用4种检验方法分别对嘉陵江流域出口水文站北碚站1954—2021年的年输沙量进行变异诊断。结果发现：参数检验得到的变异年份均在1984年，而非参数检验得到的变异年份均在1985年，由于北碚站年输沙序列存在自相关性，去除序列自相关后再次进行非参数检验，其诊断结果与参数检验诊断结果一致，4种方法的诊断结果均为1984年；1954—1984年北碚站多年平均年输沙量为1.45亿t，1985—2021年为0.42亿t，相较于变异点之前减少71.03%；嘉陵江流域年输沙量的突变和减少受到泥沙来源、气候、水利工程建设以及水土保持措施等物理背景的影响。

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	张皎
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	吴子怡
	伍梓

关键词 ：参数检验, 非参数检验, 输沙量, 变异点, 成因分析, 嘉陵江

Abstract：Background The test of sediment transport variation points serves as the cornerstone for a thorough exploration of hydrological system evolution. Jialing River is the largest tributary in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin, and its water and sediment changes exert a significant on the water and sediment dynamics in the mainstream. Hence, scrutinizing and analyzing sediment transport variation points in the Jialing River offers a scientific foundation for effective water resource management within the Yangtze River basin. Methods Parameter test and non-parameter test were used for diagnosing variation points. Considering the distinct principles underlying the variation diagnosis methods of parameter and non-parameter tests, two diagnostic methods were selected in each category. The ordered clustering method and sliding t-test were selected for parametric tests, and the sliding run method and Pettitt method were selected for non-parametric tests, and the four methods were used to diagnose the variation points of the annual sediment transport at Beibei station in the Jialing River Basin from 1954 to 2021. Results 1) Without considering the prior conditions of the two kinds of diagnostic methods, the year of variation obtained by parameter test was 1984, while the year of variation obtained by non-parameter test was 1985. Autocorrelation existed in the sediment transport sequence of Beibei station, after removing the sequence autocorrelation and carrying out the non-parametric test again its diagnostic results were consistent with the parametric test diagnostic results, and the diagnostic results of the four methods are all in 1984. 2) From 1954 to 1984, the variation amplitude of annual sediment transport was stable, and the overall decrease was after 1985, and the decrease amplitude of annual sediment transport was extremely significant. The annual average sediment transport from 1954 to 1984 was 145 x 10⁶ t, and from 1985 to 2021 was 42 x 10⁶ t, which decreased by 71.03% compared with before the mutation point. 3) The change of sediment sources was an important reason for the decrease of sediment transport at Beibei station. The direct reason for significant decrease of sediment transport was the alternating of abundant and dry years from 1970s to 1990s under the same runoff. Since the mid-1980s, the construction of water conservancy projects in the middle and upper reaches of Jialing River Basin has been increasing continuously, which was a significant driver of sediment transport reduction. Since the late 1980s, large-scale soil and water conservation measures have reduced the sediment transport modulus of Jialing River Basin, and the sediment transport reduction effect is significant. Conclusions The variation point of annual sediment transport in Jialing River Basin from 1954 to 2021 occurres in 1984, and its variation is affected by the physical background changes such as sediment source, climate, water conservancy project construction and soil and water conservation measures.

Key words： parameter testing non-parametric testing sediment transport variation point cause analysis Jialing River

收稿日期: 2023-06-19

PACS:

TV143

基金资助:国家自然科学基金“基于侵蚀能量过程的长江经济带集合式流域水土流失预报模型”（U2040208），“沉水植被对河道中泥沙沉积和输移的影响机理研究”（52109100），“河岸植被缓冲带对水流泥沙耦合输移的影响机理研究”（42377078）；清华大学水沙科学水利水电工程国家重点实验室及宁夏银川水联网数字治水联合研究院联合开放研究基金资助课题“海草植被水流特性及其对泥沙运动影响机理研究”（sklhse-2023-Iow06）；陕西省教育厅科研计划项目资助“秦岭典型小流域污染物输移过程及机理研究”（23JP110）

通讯作者: 李占斌（1962—）男，博士，教授。主要研究方向：土壤侵蚀与水土保持。E-mail：zbli@xaut.edu.cn E-mail: zbli@xaut.edu.cn

作者简介: 张皎（1993—），女，博士，副教授。主要研究方向：环境水力学与水沙动力学。E-mail：jiaozhang@xaut.edu.cn

引用本文:

张皎, 耿颖颖, 王添, 李占斌, 李鹏, 吴子怡, 伍梓. 嘉陵江流域输沙量变异点分析[J]. 中国水土保持科学, 2025, 23(1): 185-192.
ZHANG Jiao, GENG Yingying, WANG Tian, LI Zhanbin, LI Peng, WU Ziyi, WU Zi. Variation point analysis of sediment transport in Jialing River Basin. SSWC, 2025, 23(1): 185-192.

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