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| Analysis and prediction of the underground water depth and its influencing factors in Minqin Oasis |
| 1. Faculty of Geomatics, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, 730070, Lanzhou; 2. Centre of Fundamental Geoinformatics, 730000, Lanzhou: China |
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Abstract Water plays a key rule in environmental protection and economic development in Minqin Oasis. Hence, it is significant to analyze and predict the factors that affect the underground water of the Oasis. This paper firstly calculates the factors that closely correlated to the depth of underground water;then it obtains the quantitative relations between each factor and the depth of underground water by the Principal Component Analysis and Regression Methods. Finally, it predicts the future tendency of these factors. The conclusions of this research are: population, grain yield, runoff water, GDP, quantity of evaporation and the number of large livestock are closely correlated to the depth of underground water;the increase of population and the quantity of evaporation lead to the downward of the underground water,and the former has much greater effect than that of the latter; and the population and the grain yield will increase while the quantity of runoff water and the depth of underground water will decrease in the coming six years.
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Received: 19 August 2012
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