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| Climate change prediction in the future 40 years of the Hilly-gully region of Loess Plateau based on CLIGEN and GCM models:A case study in Ansai experimental station |
| Zheng Fenli1,2,Wang Jianxun1,X.C.John Zhang3,Li Zhi1 |
| 1.College of Resources and Environment,Northwest A & F University,2.The State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on Loess Plateau, Institute of Soil and Water Conservation,Chinese Academy of Science and Ministry of Water Resource: 712100,Yangling,Shaanxi,China;3.USDA-ARS Grazinglands Research Laboratory,73036,EI Reno,Oklahoma,US |
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Abstract The study of climate change is significant for preventing regional floods and droughts.In order to predict potential impacts of climate change in the future 40 years at the Hilly-gully region of Loess Plateau under three emission scenarios of A2,B2,and GGa1,observed climate data from 1986 to 2003 in Ansai Experimental Station and downloaded GCM(HadCM3)grid data during 1986 to 2049 were used,based on spatial and temporal downscaling.Climate change in the future 40 years at the Hilly-gully region of Loess Plateau was predicted by CLIGEN and GCM models.The results show that average annual precipitation in 2049 under A2,B2,and GGa1 emission scenarios increases by 37%,22%,and 12%,respectively;maximum monthly rainfall occurs in summer under three emission scenarios.Monthly minimal temperature and maximal temperature all rise up in 2049 under three emission scenarios and difference in temperature increment among three emission scenarios is not significant.Annual minimal temperature and annual maximal temperature rise in 1.41-1.56 ℃ and 0.92-1.57 ℃,respectively.
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Received: 04 September 2008
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