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| Forecast of influencing factors of desertification in Minqin Oasis of lower reaches of Shiyang River |
| Chai Chengwu1,Xu Xianying1,2,Wang Fanglin1 |
| 1.Gansu Desert Control Research Institute,National Field Science Observision and Study Station of Gansu-Minqin Desert Meadow Ecosystem,733000,Wuwei,Gansu;2.College of Soil and Water Conservation,Beijing Forestry University,100083,Beijing:China |
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Abstract Based on some forecasting researches on the influencing factors of desertification which were done,the Hurst indexes of 5 factors which were rural population,cultivating area,power consumption in rural,amount of electromechanical well,and days of sandstorm were calculated to forecast the trend of desertification in Minqin Oasis under the practices of desertification combating.The results show that in the next 10 years periods,the Hurst index of rural population will be 0.381 which could make up a opposite trend compare with the up-trend from 1989 to 2003;the Hurst index of cultivating area will be 0.578 3 that there are a same up-trend as before,but it remained a short growing period;the Hurst indexes of power consumption in rural and the amount of electromechanical will be 0.332 4 and 0.261 8,respectively,in which their total trends would be opposite to the up-trend from 1989 to 2003;and the Hurst index of the days of sandstorm will be 0.404 3 which had a up-trend compare with the down-trend from 1953 to 1998, but the trend was a weak correlativity.In view of the forecast,some several suggestions that strengthening macroscopical control of cultivating area;reducing desertification caused by land using;enhancing efficiency of cultivating land utilization;making macroscopical control of rural population、power consumption in rural、amount of electromechanical well for sustainable development were put forward.
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Received: 10 January 2007
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