情报科学 ›› 2025, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (7): 182-189.

• 博士论坛 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于排列熵的突发事件风险因素突变预警研究

  

  • 出版日期:2025-07-05 发布日期:2025-10-16

  • Online:2025-07-05 Published:2025-10-16

摘要:

【目的/意义】利用排列熵的方法对突发事件突变预警问题进行研究,从多因素视角出发更好地发现突发事
件的演变规律,实现对突发事件的事前预测、预警,达到风险损失最小化的效果。【方法/过程】在突变理论的指导
下,采用排列熵的方法对突发事件多个风险因素以量化的方式展开监测,从个性中找到共性,发现突发事件突变的
临界值,并通过具体案例证实方法的可行性和科学性。【结果/结论】运算结果表明,本文提出的方法可以有效应对
突发事件的突变预警,为突发事件的事前预测、预警工作提供参考。【创新/局限】在研究方法上,当前采用的排列熵
方法存在进一步优化空间,同时对突发事件多源异构数据的研究将进一步深入,为构建情报共享平台、以大数据技
术为情报赋能,完善应急管理工作。

Abstract:

【Purpose/significance】Using the method of permutation entropy to study the problem of sudden change warning in emer⁃
gencies, we aim to better discover the evolution laws of emergencies from a multi factor perspective, achieve pre prediction and warn⁃
ing of emergencies, and achieve the effect of minimizing risk losses.【Method/process】Under the guidance of mutation theory, the
method of permutation entropy is used to quantitatively monitor multiple risk factors of sudden events, identify commonalities from per⁃
sonalities, discover critical values of sudden event mutations, and verify the feasibility and scientificity of the method through specific
cases.【Result/conclusion】The calculation results indicate that the method proposed in this article can effectively respond to sudden
changes in emergency warning, providing reference for pre prediction and early warning work of unexpected events.【Innovation/limita⁃
tion】In terms of research methods, there is still room for further optimization of the permutation entropy method currently used. At the
same time, research on multi-source heterogeneous data of emergencies will be further deepened, to build an intelligence sharing plat⁃
form, empower intelligence with big data technology, and improve emergency management work.