基于LMDI模型的湖北省农业水足迹时空分布与驱动力研究

doi:10.16843/j.sswc.2022196

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Abstract [Background] The development of agriculture is related to the development of national security. As a central agricultural province in China, Hubei province should shoulder the heavy responsibility. The study of water footprint helps solve the problem of uneven distribution of agricultural water use and thus to improve agricultural development. [Methods] Using the water footprint theory and traditional agricultural water use accounting methods, we analyzed the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of the agricultural water footprint of cities and prefectures in Hubei province from 2005 to 2020. And the LMDI model was used to decompose the driving factors of agricultural water footprint changes. [Results] 1) The agricultural water footprint of Hubei province shows a fluctuating trend of first rising and then falling. The agricultural water footprint of each city and prefecture in Hubei province has noticeable spatial and temporal distribution differences. The agricultural water footprint of most cities is concentrated in 10×10⁸-40×10⁸ m³, at 40×10⁸-85×10⁸ m³ the number of cities in the range ranks second, with only a few remaining over 85×10⁸ m³. Over time, the agricultural water footprint of each city has gradually shifted to a higher level, with 5 cities reaching over 80×10⁸ m³ by 2020. 2) The average total effect of agricultural water footprint changes in Hubei province during the research period is 13.92×10⁸ m³. The impact of each driving force on the changes in agricultural water footprint in Hubei province is in the following order:Economic effect > technological effect > population effect. The contribution of economic effects to agricultural water footprint changes exceeds half, reaching 53.72%. The contribution values of technological effects and population effects are 32.86% and 13.42%, respectively. [Conclusions] The spatial and temporal distribution difference in water footprint results from the joint action of natural factors and economic factors. Economic effect plays a positive role in driving agricultural water footprint, while technological effect and population effect play a negative role in driving agricultural water footprint. The conclusion expands the analysis of the agricultural water footprint and driving force in the Yangtze River basin. It has theoretical significance for improving sustainable agricultural development and increasing agricultural water use efficiency.

Key words： agricultural water footprint spatiotemporal distribution LMDI model driving force

Received: 30 September 2022

PACS:	S157
	S273

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	YANG Runding
	YANG Dongmin

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YANG Runding,YANG Dongmin. Study on spatial-temporal distribution and driving forces of the agricultural water footprint in Hubei province based on the LMDI model[J]. SSWC, 2024, 22(1): 106-113.

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http://journal12.magtechjournal.com/Jweb_stbc/EN/10.16843/j.sswc.2022196 OR http://journal12.magtechjournal.com/Jweb_stbc/EN/Y2024/V22/I1/106

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