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| Spatiotemporal variation of vegetation and its future development potential in Gansu province |
| JIN Feng1,2, GE Wenyan3,4, QIN Wei5, HAN Jianqiao3,4, MA Tao6, ZHENG An2 |
1. School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China;
2. Water Resources Department of Gansu Province, 730000, Lanzhou, China;
3. Northwest A&F University, 712100, Yangling, Shaanxi, China;
4. Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, 712100, Yangling, Shaanxi, China;
5. Soil and Water Conservation Ecological Engineering Technology Research Center of the Ministry of Water Resources, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, 100048, Beijing, China;
6. Gansu Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, 730020, Lanzhou, China |
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Abstract [Background]Being an important part of terrestrial ecosystem, vegetation plays a crucial role in soil maintenance, climate regulation and carbon sequestration. As a typical climate-sensitive and ecologically fragile region, Gansu province is inseparable from vegetation for soil and water conservation and ecological restoration. Therefore, large-scaled soil and water conservation projects and ecological projects have been implemented to restore vegetation and improve ecological environment at the end of the last century and the beginning of this century. This study is aimed to explore the effectiveness of afforestation and the restoration potential of future vegetation in Gansu province.[Methods] The linear regression method and sliding-window similar habitat potential model (SWSHPM) were applied to analyze the spatiotemporal variations of vegetation and its future restoration potential, using MODIS (moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer) EVI (enhanced vegetation index) data of the growing season (April-September) from 2000 to 2020 and the land use and land cover (LULC) data of 2020.[Results] 1) Generally, EVI increased significantly during the growing season from 2000 to 2020 across the study area, with an average annual growth rate of 0.002/a. The growth rate slowed down from 2012 to 2016 and then speeded up again, indicating the continuous improvement of the overall vegetation coverage in Gansu province during the past 20 years. 2) In terms of spatial variation, EVI decreased from the southeast to the northwest during the growing season in Gansu province, with average annual slopes of -0.006-0.010/a. Besides, the vegetation coverage demonstrated significant and rapid increases in about one-third of the study region, dominated by Longdong and Longnan areas. 3) Longnan and Hexi were the high value and low value areas of EVI, respectively. And the increase of the latter vegetation was the weakest. In addition, spatial variations of EVI in Longzhong and Longdong were relatively small. 4) The vegetation restoration potential index (VRPI) in Gansu province achieved remarkable results. The current vegetation restoration potential achieved degree (VRPAD) was relatively high. The surplus vegetation restoration potential degree (SVRPD) was relatively low. Specifically, 47.4% of the bare land has the potential to be transformed into grassland and forest land. Additionally, 28.1% of grassland area and 2.5% of woodland area had the potential to be improved in the future, respectively.[Conclusions] Overall, the vegetation coverage in Gansu province has improved significantly from 2000 to 2020, while its characteristics of spatial heterogeneity remained unchanged. Besides, there were only about 10% in vegetation coverage for improvement in the future after removing the unnatural vegetation in the study area.
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Received: 31 May 2022
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