金沙江流域1961—2020年干湿日时空演变特征分析

doi:10.16843/j.sswc.2022206

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摘要准确地观测降水数据在揭示干湿日指数时空演变特征及影响因素等方面极其关键。金沙江流域是气候变化最为敏感的地区之一。由于风速、湿润和蒸发损等可能导致标准雨量器观测的降水量远小于实际降水量，而降水资料的准确与否直接影响金沙江流域水文过程分析和模拟研究。利用修订的Mann-Kendall、空间场显著性检验等，识别金沙江流域1961-2020年降水校正前后干湿日指数时空演变。结果表明：1）观测降水（Po）和校正降水（Pc）识别的干湿日指数值差异明显，但其空间分布近似一致；相较于Po，Pc识别的干湿日指数趋势在金沙江上段主要表现为减少，中下段主要表现为增加，雅砻段则表现为干日指数减少，而湿日指数增加。2）空间场显著性检验结果表明，Po和Pc识别的干湿日指数显著变化趋势主要由气候系统内部变率引起，仅Po和Pc识别的平均干日事件持续时间趋于显著增长的站点比例存在明显差异。这表明该流域干湿日指数变化趋势主要由气候变化主导，因而对气候变化十分敏感。综上，Po和Pc识别的金沙江流域干湿日指数存在明显的空间差异。因此，为准确在该流域进行水文研究和模拟，应考虑矫正降水资料的应用；同时极端干湿日的变化可能对金沙江流域农业生产和生态系统造成极其严重的威胁，应引起足够重视；基于Po和Pc识别的干湿日演变特征的相关研究，能为该流域滑坡、泥石流的预防，水资源安全规划与水土保持工作部署等，提供一定理论参考。

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	程清平
	任钇潼
	金韩宇

关键词 ：校正降水, 干湿日指数, 演变差异, 大尺度环流指数, 金沙江流域

Abstract：[Background] Accurate observation of precipitation data is crucial in revealing the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of the dry and wet spell index, as well as the influencing factors. As one of the most sensitive and vulnerable regions to climate change, the Jinsha River Basin is subjected to potential errors in precipitation measurements using standard rainfall gauges. Factors such as wind speed, humidity, and evaporation losses may result in an underestimation of the observed precipitation. The accuracy of precipitation data directly affects the analysis and simulation research of hydrological processes in the Jinsha River Basin. [Methods] The spatio-temporal variations of dry and wet day indices in the Jinsha River Basin from 1961 to 2020 were identified using corrected Mann-Kendall, spatial field significance test. [Results] 1) There were differences in the values of dry and wet day indices identified by observed precipitation (Po) and corrected precipitation (Pc), but their spatial distribution was similar. Compared to Po, the trend of dry and wet day indices identified by Pc decreased mainly in the upper reaches of the Jinsha River, increased mainly in the middle and lower reaches, and decreased (increased) in the Yalong River section. 2) The spatial field significance test results showed that the significant changes in dry and wet day indices identified by Po and Pc were mainly caused by internal variability of the climate system, this indicates that the change trend of the dry and wet day indices in the Jinsha River Basin is mainly driven by climate change, making it highly sensitive to climate variations. [Conclusions] Based on the above analysis, it is evident that there are significant spatial differences in identifying dry and wet indices in the Jinsha River Basin between observed precipitation (Po) and corrected precipitation (Pc). Therefore, in order to ensure accurate hydrological research and simulation in this basin, the application of corrected precipitation data should be considered. The findings also indicate that the simultaneous occurrence of extreme dry and wet indices could pose a serious threat to agricultural production and ecosystems in the Jinsha River Basin, and thus, should be given sufficient attention. Furthermore, the study's investigation into the evolving characteristics of dry and wet days based on Po and Pc identification can serve as a scientific reference for the prevention of landslides, debris flows, water resource security planning, and soil conservation deployment in the region.

Key words： corrected precipitation dry and wet spell indices evolutionary differences large-scale circulation index Jinsha River Watershed

收稿日期: 2022-10-18

PACS:

S164

基金资助:云南省应用基础研究计划青年项目"金沙江流域气象-农业骤旱时空三维传播机理识别"（202201AU070064）；西南林业大学科研启动项目"金沙江流域参考蒸散量（ET0）模型评估和归因分析"（112105）

作者简介: 程清平(1987-),男,博士,副教授,硕士生导师。主要研究方向:极端气候事件及其响应机制。E-mail:qpchengtyli@foxmail.com

引用本文:

程清平, 任钇潼, 金韩宇. 金沙江流域1961—2020年干湿日时空演变特征分析[J]. 中国水土保持科学, 2024, 22(1): 42-51.
CHENG Qingping, REN Yitong, JIN Hanyu. Analysis of the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of dry and wet days in the Jinsha River Watershed from 1961 to 2020. SSWC, 2024, 22(1): 42-51.

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http://journal12.magtechjournal.com/Jweb_stbc/CN/10.16843/j.sswc.2022206 或 http://journal12.magtechjournal.com/Jweb_stbc/CN/Y2024/V22/I1/42

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