情报科学 ›› 2022, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (6): 177-184.

• 博士论坛 • 上一篇    下一篇

信息共享行为下基于随机微分博弈的辟谣效果预测研究 

  

  • 出版日期:2022-06-01 发布日期:2022-06-12

  • Online:2022-06-01 Published:2022-06-12

摘要: 【目的/意义】新媒体环境下,多主体联合辟谣开创了辟谣的新模式。研究信息共享下不同主体的策略选择
依赖性,为联合辟谣主体做出科学决策提供理论依据。【方法
/过程】考虑外界随机因素的影响和不同信息主体间策
略选择的依赖性,建立
Stackelberg主从博弈和合作博弈随机微分模型,通过数值仿真,对两种协同模式进行最优均
衡分析。【结果
/结论】辟谣信息的产生与信息共享的成本、信息共享的边际收益、辟谣信息影响和信息的衰减率有
关;合作博弈下信息共享量、系统收益以及辟谣信息产生量的期望和方差都高于
Stackelberg 主从博弈下的合作模
式。【创新
/局限】研究为辟谣主体及时采取相应的网络谣言应对措施提供理论支撑,相关结论可为网络谣言的治理
和舆情预警提供方法支持。

Abstract: Purpose/significanceUnder the background of new media,multi-agent joint refuting creates a new mode of refuting ru⁃mors.The study of the strategic choice dependence of different subjects under information sharing provides a theoretical basis for the joint subjects to make scientific decisions. Method/processConsidering the influence of external random factors and the dependence of strategy selection among different information subjects,we established a stochastic differential game model in the two situations of Stackelberg master-slave cooperation and cooperative cooperation.Through numerical simulations,we present the optimal equilibrium analysis of the two modes. Result/conclusionThe results show that the generation of rumor-refuting information is related to the cost
of information sharing,marginal benefits of information sharing,impact of rumor-refuting information and attenuation rate of informa⁃ tion.There are four indicators under the cooperative game,including the information sharing volume,the income of the system,the expec⁃tation and variance of the generation of rumor-refuting information,which are higher than the Stackelberg master-slave game
. Innova⁃tion/limitationThe research provides theoretical support for the subjects of rumor-refuting to take corresponding measures to deal with online rumors in a timely manner.Moreover,the relevant conclusions can provide methodological support for the governance of on⁃line rumors and early warning of public opinions.