情报科学 ›› 2022, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (5): 65-72.

• 业务研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

高校网络舆情风险评估及预警研究 

  

  • 出版日期:2022-05-01 发布日期:2022-05-30

  • Online:2022-05-01 Published:2022-05-30

摘要: 【目的/意义】监测高校网络舆情大数据信息,建立风险评估及预警系统对于快速准确识别高校网络舆情危
机风险等级,提高高校和政府相关部门对网络舆情的监管效率、应对能力以及治理水平有着极其重要的意义。【方
/过程】在研究高校网络舆情影响因素和发展演化规律的基础上,构建舆情发布者影响力、舆情热度、舆情强度、
舆情扩散度四个维度的高校网络舆情风险评估指标体系,利用随机森林算法和熵权法进行指标筛选和权重计算,
综合运用
TOPSIS法和灰色关联分析法构建高校网络舆情风险评估及预警模型,对舆情风险等级进行划分。【结果/
结论】研究结果表明,该模型具有很好的准确性和有效性,极大简化了高校网络舆情风险评估和危机预警的识别程
序,为合理有效地处理和应对高校网络舆情提供了借鉴和参考。【创新
/局限】增加风险评估指标筛选过程,两种评
估方法的有效结合使得风险评估和预警结果更加客观准确。

Abstract: Purpose/significanceMonitoring the big data information of university network public opinion and establishing a risk as⁃sessment and early warning system are extremely important for quickly and accurately identifying the risk level of university network public opinion crisis,and improving the supervision efficiency,response ability and governance level of universities and relevant gov⁃ernment departments on network public opinion. Method/processOn the basis of researching in the influencing factors and evolution⁃ary laws of university network public opinion,construct a four-dimensional university network public opinion risk assessment index system,including the influence of public opinion publishers,public opinion popularity,public opinion intensity,and public opinion diffu⁃sion, using Random Forest algorithm and Entropy Weight method for index screening and weight calculation, comprehensive use of TOPSIS and Grey Relational Analysis method to construct a university network public opinion risk assessment and early warning
model,and divide the network public opinion risk level
. Result/conclusionThe research results show that the model has excellent ac⁃curacy and effectiveness,greatly simplifies the identification procedures of the risk assessment and crisis warning of university network public opinion,and provides reference for handling and coping with the university network public opinion reasonably and effectively.Innovation/limitationIncrease the risk assessment index screening process, and the effective combination of the two assessment methods makes the risk assessment and early warning results more objective and accurate.